9. Historical Trends
Yes, historical trends call for the party in the White House to lose a few seats in Congress—but not for them to be shellacked in their own blood. In recent decades, the party in power has lost an average of 25-30 seats in the House and 3-5 in the Senate. Projections this year are for more than double that amount, even more than in the Debacle of 1994. Saying that the 2010 midterm results will happen because of historical trends is like saying that the Asian Tsunami in December 2004 happened because winter can bring extreme weather patterns.